A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
